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Get ‘em while they’re HOT!!!
By DanKnip | September 30, 2008
Every week there are a few spreads that are bound to move… and these are most likely going to be seen when a game you would expect to be a blowout starts out with a spread of less than 2 TDS (aka 14 pts)… if you are going to play these games for the favorites, it is essential to get your money in before the spread moves against you!
An example in week 5 was the Penn State/Illinois game, which opened at 13 1/2, but moved to 15 by gametime. The result was a 14 point win for the Nittany Lions, which means if you bet them early, you collected… if you waited, you were out of luck… the key lesson again, is when you like a heavy favorite early, every point can count, so get your money in as soon as possible!!!
Some week 6 games that I have already taken where I anticipate a line move that will make it less attractive to bet the favorite by week’s end:
Maryland -13 1/2 over Virginia - The first item to consider is that Virginia stinks! The Cavaliers opened their ACC schedule with a 31-3 loss to Duke! Next you can assume at this point that Maryland’s early loss to Middle Tennessee State was a bit of a fluke, as they have racked up two solid wins against Cal and Clemson since, and seem to have found their game… I would expect this line to move up a couple of points at least, so a Maryland 28-13 victory will be good for those who get in early!
Missouri -10 1/2 over Nebraska - In looking at the Missouri defense (or lack their of, so far) these few points may make a big difference in this matchup. Nebraska has shown a surprising openess to shootouts this season as well, which means this game could likely be affected by a meaningless last minute score that has no effect on the sidelines, but will leave fans moaning in Vegas… If you get your money in on the Tigers now, you’ll be happy with the 51-38 final!
Penn State - 12 1/2 over Purdue - Although, I suspect Penn State is going to make this a laugher, it is again that 3 TD margin where even a dominant team starts to relax and might let up a last minute score that closes the gap just enough to hurt your wallet. Purdue has the fire power to get down the field one more time in the last 2 minutes to close this one to a 42-28 final… you’ll be wiping your brow with some greenbacks if you get on the Nittany Lions now!
Good Luck!
Topics: NCAA Football |