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SMART GAMBLING OR DUMB LUCK?
By The Real McCoy | September 22, 2008
One week ago this very day I perused the point spreads of the upcoming college and NFL games. Five games immediately jumped out at me and had me drooling like an old man at a Hooters Calendar signing. Now I realize it’s easy for me to break these games down AFTER the fact but I thought it was important for all you high rollers out there to see how you can break it down and collect that free money. Don’t follow your heart, follow your brain. Think about matchups, research past games, breakdown conferences, for over/under bets study the weather. I know it sounds like a lot, but with a little research you can win a lot of money.
Game 1: Alabama at Arkansas, Spread – Bama’ favored by nine and a half… Arkansas has looked horrendous in its first two games, squeaking out wins in the final minute to such powerhouses as Western Illinois (28-24) and Louisiana-Monroe (28-27). Meanwhile Alabama annihilated Clemson, snuck by a good Tulane team, & cruised past Western Kentucky. Include the Hogs struggles to adapt to new coach Bobby Petrino’s spread offense, Bama’s relentless stingy defense, and it equals easy money. Final – Bama 49 Arkansas 14
Game 2: Georgia at Arizona State, Spread – Georgia favored by seven… I looked at this spread and thought it was a joke. Arizona State just lost to UNLV at home (23-20) and UCLA got blown out by BYU 59 to nothing. The Pac-10 minus USC is garbage. The SEC had five teams ranked in the top ten. Georgia was preseason number one and boasts one of the best defenses in the country. They sacked ASU quarterback four times and the Sun Devils rushing game was useless. Final – Georgia 27 ASU 10
Game 3: Florida at Tennessee, Spread – Florida favored by seven and a half… Tennessee lost to UCLA 27 to 24, UCLA lost to BYU 59 to nothing the following week, so how bad does that make Tennessee? Florida meanwhile outscored its first two opponents 82 to 13. I was nervous about this bet because Tennessee plays great at home and this is an intense SEC rivalry. But that UCLA game sold it for me. As well as Florida’s win over Miami. I think Miami is a great team which will bring me to my next bet. Final – Florida 30 Tennessee 6
Game 4: Miami (FL) at Texas A&M, Spread – Miami favored by two and a half… The Aggies lost their home opener to Arkansas State 18 -14. That alone was almost enough for me. Miami lost to Florida but I thought their speed on defense was evident against the Gators. If Texas A&M had problems scoring against Arkansas State how would they fare against the Hurricanes? Final - Miami 41 Texas A&M 23
Game 5: Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons, Spread – Atlanta favored by six… If I was a millionaire I would’ve bet a million dollars on the Falcons. Swear to God. The Chiefs were starting a quarterback named Tyler Thigpen out of Coastal Carolina. Raiders rookie running back Darren McFadden torched the Chiefs the week earlier with 164 yards rushing and one touchdown. What would Falcons running back Michael “The Burner” Turner do? Was a guy named Tyler Thigpen from Coastal Carolina really going to come in and “wow” the Falcons? No F’ing Way! Final – Atlanta 38 Chiefs 14*Thigpen threw 3 interceptions*Turner rushed for 3 TD’s
One more note, I did lose one game this week. I took Missouri to cover against Buffalo. Missouri was favored by 32 and a half. I figured since they won their previous two games 52 - 3 and 69 - 17 that it was a great bet. I didn’t expect the Mizzou to lose 3 fumbles inside Buffalo territory. That’s a huge swing in a game with such a big spread. That potentially cost me 21 points. As well, Buffalo returned a kickoff 96 yards. Take away one of those fumbles or that kickoff return and I cover. But THAT’S why they play the game.
To be fair, I will post my five picks for this upcoming week on Thursday.
Topics: NCAA Football, NFL Football |
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